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Indian Economic Overview

India’s economy is on the fulcrum of an ever increasing growth curve. With positive indicators such as a stable 8-9 per cent annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapidly expanding FDI inflows, India has emerged as the second fastest growing major economy in the world.

The economy has been growing at an average growth rate of 8.8 per cent in the last four fiscal years (2003-04 to 2006-07), with the 2006-07 growth rate of 9.6 per cent being the highest in the last 18 years. Industrial and services sectors have logged in a 10.63 and 11.18 per cent growth rate in 2006-07 respectively, against 8.02 per cent and 11.01 cent in 2005-06. Similarly, manufacturing grew by 8.98 per cent and 12 per cent in 2005-06 and 2006-07, and transport, storage and communication recorded a growth of 14.65 per cent and 16.64 per cent, respectively.

The 2007-08 Fiscal Year

The growth process continues apace. On the back of 9.6 per cent growth April–December 2006–07, GDP grew by 8.9 per cent during April–December 2007–08.

According to the third advance estimates of crop production by the agriculture ministry, food grain output grew by 4.6 per cent in 2007–08, nearly four times the average annual growth of 1.2 per cent between 1990 and 2007.
Overall industrial production grew by 8.3 per cent during 2007–08. Significantly, manufacturing sector grew at the rate of 8.7 per cent.
Services grew by 10.4 per cent in April–December 2007, on the back of 11.4 per cent during the corresponding period in 2006–07.
Manufacturing grew by 8.7 per cent during April–February 2007–08, on the back of 12.5 per cent growth during 2006–07.
Core infrastructure sector continued its growth rate recording 5.6 per cent growth in 2007-08.
While exports grew by 23.02 per cent during 2007–08, imports increased by 27.01 per cent in the same period.
Money Supply (M3) has grown by a robust 20.7 per cent growth (year-on-year) as of end-March 2008, compared to 21.5 per cent last year.
Fiscal and revenue deficit decreased by 13.5 per cent and 33.3 per cent, respectively, during April–February 2007–08 over corresponding period last year.

With such a robust growth rates, the revised estimates of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) expects the economy to grow by 9 per cent in 2007–08, higher than the earlier projection of 8.7 per cent. This is in tune with the high average real GDP growth of 8.7 per cent per annum during the five-year period, 2003–04 to 2007–08. Further, this would the third consecutive year, when the economy has grown by 9 per cent and above.

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