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India’s Retail Sector

Organised stores to capture 25 per cent of retail revenues by 2011. In a study undertaken by Deloitte India, it has been found that the organised retail industry is growing faster than expected in India, with estimates of a significant increase of total retail revenues from its current 8% to 25% by 2011

The retail industry is worth $295 billion at present.  Organised retail grew at a scorching pace in 2007, going to 8% of total retail sales from 5% in 2006.

New stores, more spending power and access to credit has led to organised retail’s 50% growth in 2007.

Retailers have bought or will buy around 316 million sq.ft. of retail space, several times the 68 million sq.ft. of space they took up in 2006.  Even with the current growth, Deloitte estimates that India’s biggest cities don’t have a high density of organised retail.

India is getting urbanised at a faster rate than the rest of the world and by 2030, 40.7 per cent of the country population will be living in urban areas. (UNFPA)  With better job opportunities and higher wages states like Maharashtra and Haryana are witnessing rapid urbanisation. Amongst all the States and Union territories, the NCR region is the most urbanised with 93% urban population.  The number of metropolitan cities with a million plus population has risen to 35.  By 2030, there will be 70 cities with a million-plus population and by 2015, the top six mega cities are expected to have 84 million residents (UN Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs)

The number of millionaires in India, Russia, South Korea and South Africa is rising at 15-21 per cent per annum.  In the Asia Pacific region there are 2.4 million millionaires already, compared with 2.8 million in Europe and 2.9 million in America

India, Russia and China, the three emerging markets, have yields the greatest temptation to large cross-national retailers, according to the annual Global Retail Development Index of AT Kearney.

Apart from setting up a presence in big cities in these three countries, an increasing number of retailers show tremendous interest in smaller second - and third - tier cities to drive business growth.

India and Russia maintain the top two slots of the most updated FRDI ratings for the past three years.   India is still a land of promise for luxury goods makers, a sleeping giant whose potential is only now beginning to emerge.  There are now about 1.6 million Indian households that spend an average of $9,000 a year on luxury goods.  India will be tomorrow what China is today.  In India there are 420 million people under the age of 25, 22 million people who join the ranks of the middle classes every year and 67 million who have an average annual income of $25,000 (which is the average income in Milan).  India has more consumers for luxury goods than the adult population of several countries.  The luxury consumer market is expected to grow three fold by 2010.  In recent months a multitude of top brands have announced plans to set up shop in India, including Dolce & Gabbana, Hermes, Jimmy Choo and Gucci.

India’s future prospects have excited luxury behemoths from around the globe.  Many of the international luxury brands have made inroads into India middle-class households, and many people who aspire to possess the prized product, go ahead and acquire it – even if it means taking a loan!

China and India are expected to continue as the top sourcing hubs in retail and consumer sector globally in the coming years.

The Indian retail market, which is the fifth largest retail destination globally according to industry estimates, is estimated to grow from the US$330 billion in 2007 to US $427 billion by 2010 and US$637 billion by 2015.  Modern retail is likely to increase its share in the total retail market to 25 per cent by 2010.

Organised retail in India raked in US25.44 billion turnover in 2007-8 as against US$ 16.99 in 2006-07, a whopping growth rate of 49.73 per cent. 

The organised retail segment has been growing at a blistering pace, exceeding all previous estimates.  Driven by changing lifestyles, strong income growth and favourable demographic patterns, Indian retail is expanding at a rapid pace.  Mall space, from a meagre one million sq ft. In 2002, is expected to touch 40 million sq.ft. by end 2007 and an estimated 60 million sq.ft. by end 2008 (Retailer Sentiment Survey-Asia).

Indian cities are witnessing a paradigm shift from traditional forms of retailing into a modernised organised sector.  The number of operational malls is set to more than double to over 412 with 205 million sq.ft. by 2010 and further 715 malls by 2015 , on the back of major retail developments even in Tier II and Tier III cities in India.

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